From Present to Prison

Short-term Mindsets Theory (STMT) Set to Revolutionize the Study of Crime

A novel theory aims to impact the field of criminology, offering a more comprehensive and integrated understanding of a criminological phenomenon that has been well established: that offenders tend to focus on the present and disregard the future.

Short-term Mindsets Theory (STMT), proposed by Jean-Louis van Gelder and Willem Frankenhuis from the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law, provides a new paradigm for studying crime, one that takes into account both individual-level and sociogenic factors. The researchers argue that whether people focus more or less on the present or future is partly dispositional in nature but can also vary within individuals.

The key premise of this new theory, i.e., short-term mindsets, builds on a finding for which there has been ample empirical backup: people whose thinking mainly factors in immediate and short-term conse­quences and who disregard potential longer-term consequences of their actions are more likely to commit crimes. However, while this is a consensus, the understanding of this phenom­e­non has remained incomplete and has been lacking an organizing framework – a gap STMT aims to fill.

In their paper, published open-access in the Annual Review of Criminology, they argue that short-term mindsets, i.e., whether people focus more or less on the present or future, is partly stable in nature but can also show within-individual variation in line with exposure to certain risk factors, such as criminogenic environments (e.g., adverse neighborhoods, delinquent peer groups), events (e.g., victimization, sanctions), and experiences (e.g., being drunk, aroused, or angry). “For example, it makes a difference whether a person grows up in a disadvantaged neighborhood, but also whether they become the victim of crime or what they experience in a certain situation, like anger or arousal,” says van Gelder. “Any such factor can in turn reinforce other factors that also increase short-term mindsets, further increasing the likelihood that someone does indeed engage in criminal behavior.”

STMT represents a significant departure from existing theories, such as Self-Control Theory (SCT), which has long been a dominant approach in criminology. While SCT focuses on individual-level factors, such as self-control, STMT incorporates a sociogenic perspective, recognizing that crime is influenced by a complex interplay of individual and environmental factors. By integrating individual-level and sociogenic perspectives, STMT offers a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of crime, closing a significant gap in the field.