Improving the Risk Assessment of Persons with Psychiatric Illnesses

Security expert Ralf Poscher recommends the transfer of existing security instruments on zdfheute

A knife attack in the German city of Aschaffenburg that killed two has sparked a heated debate. Why was the attacker still at large? And what other measures are available to authorities to prevent such acts? On zdfheute, Ralf Poscher explains why assessments in the context of involuntary hospitalization are so difficult and what other instruments might help investigators.

In the aftermath of the stabbing, perpetrated by a man from Afghanistan suffering from a psychiatric illness, many questions are left unanswered. The public and politicians have been discussing the issue of the deportation of failed asylum seekers and wondering aloud whether the state could have done more. Many of the points the debate centers around are in fact complex legal issues, which is why the German television news program zdfheute asked Ralf Poscher, Director at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law, to weigh in on the topic.

According to Poscher, German legislation governing involuntary hospitalization already provides for the option to section persons who present a danger to themselves or others, even without them having committed a crime. The real problem is that it is incredibly difficult for doctors to assess whether or not a person poses such a risk. Acts like the one in Aschaffenburg can rarely be predicted.

Poscher adds that the success rate for uncovering and foiling plots that involve more than one person is already very high. Conversely, this is considerably more difficult for acts planned by one person alone. He recommends the transfer of what is known as RADAR concepts (rule-based analysis of potentially destructive perpetrators to assess immediate risks) to the risk assessment of persons with psychiatric illnesses who have previously committed acts of violence. Poscher deems approaches such as this one essential given the sheer number of crimes of this nature being committed.