Beispiel für einen PRECOBS-Alarm und die folgende Steigerung der Polizeidichte, siehe hierzu Evaluationsbericht S. 28, zur Vergrößerung bitte das Bild anklicken

In response to increasing rates of domestic burglary in Germany over the past few years, police and policy-makers are attempting to determine new ways to stop or, ideally, reverse this trend. In this context, methods of predictive policing are being applied and tested in some of the federal states of Germany. On October 30, 2015 the Pilot Project Predictive Policing P4 was started in Baden-Württemberg. Coordinated by the State Office of Criminal Investigations, the project was conducted in the police departments of Karlsruhe and Stuttgart. As in Bavaria and some areas of Switzerland, the computer software PRECOBS (offered by the German company 'Institut für musterbasierte Prognosetechnik') was employed to predict near-repeat burglary events and to apply subsequent target-oriented operational planning.    The project was designed to produce open-ended and unbiased results and therefore included an external scientific evaluation conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law. Automatically generated predictive policing data were analyzed to obtain assessments of practicality and information concerning crime preventive aspects. In addition, semi-structured interviews with the police officers operating the software and an online survey with more than 700 participants were carried out. The results have been published in an evaluation report (in German). An English text, summarizing the main findings, will be made available shortly.

In re­sponse to in­creas­ing rates of do­mest­ic burg­lary in Ger­many over the past few years, po­lice and policy-makers are at­tempt­ing to de­term­ine new ways to stop or, ideally, re­verse this trend. In this con­text, meth­ods of pre­dict­ive poli­cing are be­ing ap­plied and tested in some of the fed­er­al states of Ger­many. On Oc­to­ber 30, 2015 the Pi­lot Pro­ject Pre­dict­ive Poli­cing P4 was star­ted in Baden-Württem­berg. Co­ordin­ated by the State Of­fice of Crim­in­al In­vest­ig­a­tions, the pro­ject was con­duc­ted in the po­lice de­part­ments of Karls­ruhe and Stut­tgart. As in Bav­aria and some areas of Switzer­land, the com­puter soft­ware PRE­COBS (offered by the Ger­man com­pany 'In­sti­tut für mus­ter­basierte Pro­gnose­tech­nik') was em­ployed to pre­dict near-re­peat burg­lary events and to ap­ply sub­sequent tar­get-ori­ented op­er­a­tion­al plan­ning.   

The pro­ject was de­signed to pro­duce open-ended and un­biased res­ults and there­fore in­cluded an ex­tern­al sci­entif­ic eval­u­ation con­duc­ted by the Max Planck In­sti­tute for For­eign and In­ter­na­tion­al Crim­in­al Law. Auto­mat­ic­ally gen­er­ated pre­dict­ive poli­cing data were ana­lyzed to ob­tain as­sess­ments of prac­tic­al­ity and in­form­a­tion con­cern­ing crime pre­vent­ive as­pects. In ad­di­tion, semi-struc­tured in­ter­views with the po­lice of­ficers op­er­at­ing the soft­ware and an on­line sur­vey with more than 700 par­ti­cipants were car­ried out.

The res­ults have been pub­lished in an eval­u­ation re­port (in Ger­man). An Eng­lish text, sum­mar­iz­ing the main find­ings, will be made avail­able shortly.