Coherently Idiosyncratic Sanction Risk Perceptions and Deterrence – Lecture CANCELLED © private

Lecturer: Prof. Dan Nagin Ph.D. (Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University) | Date, time: May 6, 2020, 6:15 – 8 p.m. | Title: "Co­herent­ly Idio­syn­cra­tic Sanc­ti­on Risk Per­cep­ti­ons and De­ter­rence" | Lec­ture fol­lowed by light re­fresh­ments | Venue: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law, Fürstenbergstr. 19 (seminar room), Freiburg.

The lecture had to be cancelled. A new date will be communicated in due time.

This study advances the concept of “idiosyncratically coherent” sanction risk perception, whereby the absolute level risk varies over the full range of probabilities from zero to one but remains coherently grounded in objective conditions. The study is based upon the results of an experimental study involving speeding on an interstate highway. Respondents viewed videos from the driver’s perspective of a car traveling on an Interstate highway. We find that while sanctions risk and safety perceptions for speeding idiosyncratically vary across respondents, they remain grounded in a sensible fashion to objective conditions. We also find that citizen perceptions of apprehension risk are remarkably similar to risk estimates elicited from state troopers who viewed the same videos and were asked about the likelihood of a driver being cited for speeding in these circumstances. Moreover, intentions to speed are causally linked to the same situational features that are causally linked to sanction risk and safety perceptions with the implication that intentions to speed are systematically related to apprehension risk and safety perceptions.

Short bio­graph­ic­al note:
Daniel S. Nagin is Teresa and H. John Heinz III Uni­versity Pro­fess­or of Pub­lic Policy and Stat­ist­ics at the Heinz Col­lege, Carne­gie Mel­lon Uni­versity. His re­search fo­cuses on the evol­u­tion of crim­in­al and an­ti­so­cial be­ha­vi­ors over the life course, the de­terrent ef­fect of crim­in­al and non-crim­in­al pen­al­ties on il­leg­al be­ha­vi­ors, and the de­vel­op­ment of stat­ist­ic­al meth­ods for ana­lyz­ing lon­git­ud­in­al data. He is an elec­ted Fel­low of the Amer­ic­an So­ci­ety of Crim­in­o­logy, Amer­ic­an As­so­ci­ation for the Ad­vance­ment of Sci­ence, and Amer­ic­an Academy of Polit­ic­al and So­cial Sci­ence and the re­cip­i­ent of the Amer­ic­an So­ci­ety of Crim­in­o­logy’s Ed­win H Suth­er­land Award in 2006, the Stock­holm Prize in Crim­in­o­logy in 2014, Carne­gie Mel­lon Uni­versity’s Alumni Dis­tin­guished Achieve­ment Award in 2016 and the Na­tion­al Academy of Sci­ence Award for Sci­entif­ic Re­view­ing in 2017.