Gastvortrag von Prof. Dan Nagin Ph.D. (Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University) am 06.05.2020 von 18:15 bis 20:00 Uhr. Titel: "Coherently Idiosyncratic Sanction Risk Perceptions and Deterrence". Vortrag mit anschließendem Apéro am Max-Planck-Institut zur Erforschung von Kriminalität, Sicherheit und Recht, Fürstenbergstr. 19 (Seminarraum), Freiburg.
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This study advances the concept of “idiosyncratically coherent” sanction risk perception, whereby the absolute level risk varies over the full range of probabilities from zero to one but remains coherently grounded in objective conditions. The study is based upon the results of an experimental study involving speeding on an interstate highway. Respondents viewed videos from the driver’s perspective of a car traveling on an Interstate highway. We find that while sanctions risk and safety perceptions for speeding idiosyncratically vary across respondents, they remain grounded in a sensible fashion to objective conditions. We also find that citizen perceptions of apprehension risk are remarkably similar to risk estimates elicited from state troopers who viewed the same videos and were asked about the likelihood of a driver being cited for speeding in these circumstances. Moreover, intentions to speed are causally linked to the same situational features that are causally linked to sanction risk and safety perceptions with the implication that intentions to speed are systematically related to apprehension risk and safety perceptions.
Daniel S. Nagin is Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics at the Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University. His research focuses on the evolution of criminal and antisocial behaviors over the life course, the deterrent effect of criminal and non-criminal penalties on illegal behaviors, and the development of statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data. He is an elected Fellow of the American Society of Criminology, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American Academy of Political and Social Science and the recipient of the American Society of Criminology’s Edwin H Sutherland Award in 2006, the Stockholm Prize in Criminology in 2014, Carnegie Mellon University’s Alumni Distinguished Achievement Award in 2016 and the National Academy of Science Award for Scientific Reviewing in 2017.