Coherently Idiosyncratic Sanction Risk Perceptions and Deterrence – Vortrag FÄLLT AUS © private

Gastvortrag von Prof. Dan Nagin Ph.D. (Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University) am 06.05.2020 von 18:15 bis 20:00 Uhr. Titel: "Coherently Idiosyncratic Sanction Risk Perceptions and Deterrence". Vor­trag mit an­schlie­ßen­dem Apéro am Max-Planck-Institut zur Erforschung von Kriminalität, Sicherheit und Recht, Fürstenbergstr. 19 (Seminarraum), Freiburg.

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This study advances the concept of “idiosyncratically coherent” sanction risk perception, whereby the absolute level risk varies over the full range of probabilities from zero to one but remains coherently grounded in objective conditions. The study is based upon the results of an experimental study involving speeding on an interstate highway. Respondents viewed videos from the driver’s perspective of a car traveling on an Interstate highway. We find that while sanctions risk and safety perceptions for speeding idiosyncratically vary across respondents, they remain grounded in a sensible fashion to objective conditions. We also find that citizen perceptions of apprehension risk are remarkably similar to risk estimates elicited from state troopers who viewed the same videos and were asked about the likelihood of a driver being cited for speeding in these circumstances. Moreover, intentions to speed are causally linked to the same situational features that are causally linked to sanction risk and safety perceptions with the implication that intentions to speed are systematically related to apprehension risk and safety perceptions.

Da­niel S. Na­gin is Te­resa and H. John Heinz III Uni­ver­si­ty Pro­fes­sor of Pu­blic Po­li­cy and Sta­ti­stics at the Heinz Col­le­ge, Car­ne­gie Mel­lon Uni­ver­si­ty. His re­se­arch fo­cu­ses on the evo­lu­ti­on of cri­mi­nal and an­ti­so­ci­al be­ha­viors over the li­fe cour­se, the de­ter­rent ef­fect of cri­mi­nal and non-cri­mi­nal pen­al­ties on il­le­gal be­ha­viors, and the de­ve­lop­ment of sta­ti­sti­cal me­thods for ana­ly­zing lon­gi­tu­di­nal da­ta. He is an elec­ted Fel­low of the Ame­ri­can So­cie­ty of Cri­mi­no­lo­gy, Ame­ri­can As­so­cia­ti­on for the Ad­van­ce­ment of Science, and Ame­ri­can Aca­de­my of Po­li­ti­cal and So­ci­al Science and the re­ci­pi­ent of the Ame­ri­can So­cie­ty of Cri­mi­no­lo­gy’s Ed­win H Suther­land Award in 2006, the Stock­holm Pri­ze in Cri­mi­no­lo­gy in 2014, Car­ne­gie Mel­lon Uni­ver­si­ty’s Alum­ni Dis­tin­guis­hed Achie­ve­ment Award in 2016 and the Na­tio­nal Aca­de­my of Science Award for Scien­ti­fic Re­view­ing in 2017.